Roadcraft says..

[cornmek1]

I'm 3 times more likely to have an accident within 3 years of a previous one.. which is 105x more likely than a car driver who hasn't had an accident.. ( normally 35x )

Nutz... Dont like those odds.. I had a low speed rear wheel lock spill last week.. ( no damage to anything bar a cracked rib )

I think I'll lay off the daily commuting for a while & bring her out for Summer jaunts..

Anyone had personal experience of this THREE YEAR voodoo ?

regards

Kev

[horobags]

Im a big fan of roadcraft, a fantastic book to help learn and improve your riding skills , but a 'staistic ' like the one you quoted might be fact, but it does say 'more likely' which doens't mean its definatly going to happen to you .
Kev, hope your rib heals quick, I'm afraid your riding confidence might take a little longer. Many will say just get back on it and ride, but its up to you. Go for a ride when you feel well enough to do so. Concentrate, and plan forward. You will get there in the end. Commuting on a bike is becoming increasingly dangerous in the UK at the moment. Good luck.

[Bogger]

I can concur. Just a few weeks back I very nearly got side swiped on the motorway. I just manage to swerve out of the way into the fast lane . Good job it was restricted to 50mph otherwise someone could have rear ended. It shook me up for a couple of days commuting.

Bogger

[Jon]

Don't forget those statistics are for all motorcyclists and a lot crashes are down to 17 to 21 year old learners. If a learner crashes, it is more than likely down to inexperience and so yes he is unlikely to have gained enough to ensure he doesn't.

Our accidents tend to be far less frequent and we learn from them...I reckon if you took the low age group riders out of that statistic it would cease to exist....

[horobags]

well talking about it!! going down the A49 on me deauville today, crossing an island an old woman pulls straight out in front of me. I try to turn it in, but she totally didnt see me ,carried on and cut off any chance of an exit point for me so we had a coming together.. Im lay in the island with me deauville on top of me and she shouts out of the window ' you've broken my mirror!!!' WTF!! Anyway not really hurt, she's agreed to pay repairs (only when a driver came over and told her it was her fault). Yep,, had a smashing day today!!

[lucky]

well talking about it!! going down the A49 on me deauville today, crossing an island an old woman pulls straight out in front of me. I try to turn it in, but she totally didnt see me ,carried on and cut off any chance of an exit point for me so we had a coming together.. Im lay in the island with me deauville on top of me and she shouts out of the window ' you've broken my mirror!!!' WTF!! Anyway not really hurt, she's agreed to pay repairs (only when a driver came over and told her it was her fault). Yep,, had a smashing day today!!

Hope your alright mate & I hope that the repairs cost her as well.

[Newtsalad]

I reckon the more you ride, the more complacent you get, the more likely an accident will happen. Certainly true with me.

[Jon]

I reckon the more you ride, the more complacent you get, the more likely an accident will happen. Certainly true with me.

That is true, but it is tempered by the experience you gain. Most accidents happen when a situation outside one's experience arises, As time goes on our personal 'database' of potential and actual accidents grows and as it does, that experience allows us to anticipate the likelihood of contact and so we take avoiding action before it can occur.

If, after an accident or near-miss we modify our riding a bit to prevent that particular situation from happening again (and if one doesn't you won't last long!) then eventually you will ride in a way that anticipates so many situations that any that do happen tend to be near misses rather than actual crashes.
Most accidents are fairly typical, we hear the same stories over and over. Every time you survive a scenario you are less likely to have that particular one again as you now ride with each one in mind so to speak so eventually having worked through all the common ones and most of the uncommon ones the hazard situations cause you to slow down and ramp up your awareness.

The 'classic' accidents are the ones that tend to catch newbies out, the weird and unusual ones catch out the more experienced riders out but the avoidance techniques that work on the classic ones all add up to help even on the strange 'one-off' types,...Eventually you have enough experience to deal with them all.

It takes lots of miles in environments where accidents tend to occur.

Jon (currently riding around Rome in rush hour on a stupid 50cc Chinese scooter)

[Newtsalad]

Yes true. But I'm thinking more about 'so experienced' that you awake from some reverie on a long motorway journey to realise you've a mass of red lights in your face at 80 miles per hour and you're only 100ft behind the car in front which has 'brake assist'.

[Jon]

Yes true. But I'm thinking more about 'so experienced' that you awake from some reverie on a long motorway journey to realise you've a mass of red lights in your face at 80 miles per hour and you're only 100ft behind the car in front which has 'brake assist'.

That exact thing happened to me in 1983 on the M1 near Towcester...Doing 80 and feeling dozy with the sun onn my back and the throttle-stop locked in suddenly realised the three lanes of traffic ahead of me was all stopped rather than just slowing, reacted too late, ran out of brakes on the bike, clipped the rear of the last car in the queue at about 50 mph then careened down through the gap with the cylinders banging on the road as I wrestled to keep the bike upright.

So, now, If I see brake lights ahead, I don't assume they are moving just a bit slower than me. Lesson learned, one more potential hazard that won't get me next time!

Like I said...Get the miles in...That was 32 years and about 200,000 miles ago